Superforecasting By Philip E. Tetlock Dan Gardner

Superforecasting By Philip E. Tetlock Dan GardnerWhat if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was

Will they be able to convince people of this error

the deterioration of the Israel-Palestine conflict

spiritual poetry of thirteenth-century Sufi Mystic Rumi more popular than ever

Elif Shafak's The Flea Palace is a moving and highly original novel about a group of individuals who live in the same building and who together become embroiled in a mystery

Piketty shows that modern economic growth and the diffusion of knowledge have allowed us to avoid inequalities on the apocalyptic scale predicted by Karl Marx

This book is essentially a teaching machine

and arrests were commonplace

good and evil

Now because of her mistake

tragedy and farce

from events fondly recalled to the impact of appalling tragedy

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